Horrific things like the mass murders of the 20th Century tend to stick in our consciousness, and signs of long term health, like improvement in human lifespan or a decline in violence impress us much less. We tend to judge ourselves harshly and wonder how our current world civilization ever survived up to this point. I know of no reason why this should universally be so, although we observe on our own world that civilizations grow, flourish and die. That is longer than the time of the ancient Sumerians to the present day.įoolishly estimating from our single, incomplete sample, L is so far only a few decades, and if that is as far as it gets, then technological civilizations are rare, and perhaps not even one has survived long enough to develop an interstellar colony. For us to have much hope of finding our ET counterparts, L must be much larger than our present experience base tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of years. More likely the product is something like 1/1000, or worse. Terms 4-6 can at best multiply up to 1, but I regard that at present at blithely optimistic. Of all the unknown terms in the Drake Equation, "L" is the one unbounded on the upper end. I'll wait.ĭoes the universe devour its young? Is any ecology of molecules sufficiently complex to ask "are we alone" in fact a quick, bright thing doomed to be alone? We prefer to think not, but we must ask this question honestly. I would also like to point out that Seth Shostak has written thoughtfully about "L" in this document (go to page 399), and covers many of the key points well. Better yet, let's talk in real time, and record our conversation for the Wow! Signal Podcast. I'd like it to be more of a conversation than a soliloquy, so please share your thoughts here, or come on over to the G+ Community and let me have an earful. This is that talk we need to have on the last term in the Drake Equation, mostly commonly denoted as "L". Lysander from Act 1, scene 1, 141–149, "A Midsummer Night's Dream" So quick bright things come to confusion." That, in a spleen, unfolds both heaven and earth Īnd ere a man hath power to say "Behold!" War, death, or sickness did lay siege to it,īrief as the lightning in the collied night,
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